CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-09-21T13:38:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-09-21T13:38ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27034/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is likely the eruption and subsequent M8.7 flare from AR 3435 (N08E22) starting around 2023-09-21T12:51Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Dimming and field line movement is also visible near the eruption in SDO AIA 171 and 193. It is possible that this CME was overtaken by one or two CMEs from September 22 that are thought to have arrived at L1 on 2023-09-24T19:52Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-25T01:58Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 54.03 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2023-09-22T19:56Z
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